Household Strain Index
One number for how much pressure UK households are under today, from the official data we track: fuel prices, power cuts, weather and flood warnings, flu and COVID-19, hosepipe bans and health alerts. 0 is a calm day; 100 is every part at its worst reference point at once.
up 2 since 18 September; down 2 since 28 August. Highest so far: 50 on 13 August; lowest 16 on 20 July.
Method version 2. A day is scored only when parts carrying at least 70% of the weight have a reading. Version 2, 25 September: Added flu and COVID-19 at 10%. Fuel went from 30% to 25% and hosepipe bans from 10% to 5% to make room. The whole history was rescored.
What's driving it
Each part scores 0 to 100; the points are its share of today's 28.
Scored back to 20 July from our stored readings. Bands: Low 0–24, Moderate 25–49, High 50–74, Very high 75+. Download the daily series (CSV)
How it's worked out
Each part scores 0 to 100 between two fixed reference points, so a score means the same thing next year as it does today; nothing is measured against our own short history. The index is the weighted average of the parts that have a reading that day. A weekly source such as the hosepipe-ban report or the UKHSA flu figures stands until the next one; a power-cut or warning reading counts only for its own day.
Petrol and diesel each score 0 at their 2019 UK average (125.0p and 131.7p a litre) and 100 at their all-time weekly high (191.6p and 199.2p, week of 4 July 2022); the part is the mean of the two.
Reference points: DESNZ weekly road fuel prices, 2018 to 2026. Daily readings: Fuel Finder (all reporting forecourts) from 24 September 2026, the CMA retailer price files before that. Our daily averages come from a different sample from DESNZ's weekly survey; on 21 September 2026 the retailer files ran about 1.5p a litre above it for diesel.
Unplanned power cuts in progress at the day's highest reading, per network reporting, on a log scale: 25 per network (a typical day in our first two months) scores 0 and 250 per network scores 100. Planned engineering work is left out.
Live outage feeds of the distribution networks that publish them (four of Britain's six in September 2026). Counts cuts, not homes. Two readings a day, so a short spike between them is missed. A network whose feed fails that day is left out of the average, and a day with fewer than two networks reporting has no reading. Electricity North West and SP Energy Networks do not publish live data.
The highest Met Office warning in force that day: none 0, yellow 40, amber 75, red 100, plus 4 for each further warning, up to 20 more.
Met Office National Severe Weather Warning Service.
Flood warnings in force at the day's highest reading, with each severe warning counted three times, on a log scale: 2 or fewer scores 0 and 150 scores 100.
Environment Agency real-time flood-monitoring API (England). England only. Flood alerts, the lower level, are not counted.
Flu and COVID-19 test positivity (the share of tests that come back positive) each score 0 at their typical level, the median of the 2025/26 season (1.5% for flu, 2.4% for COVID-19), and 100 at their highest since July 2022, the first full season after free COVID-19 testing ended (flu 32.6%, week of 19 December 2022; COVID-19 17.7%, 5 October 2023). The part is whichever of the two scores higher.
UKHSA data dashboard: weekly flu test positivity and the 7-day average of COVID-19 test positivity, England. England only. UKHSA publishes each week about ten days after it ends, so this part runs behind the others, and positivity depends on who is being tested.
The share of the water companies we check that have a hosepipe ban in force: none scores 0, all of them 100.
Environment Agency weekly drought report, and the Welsh companies' own announcements. England and Wales; a weekly source.
The highest UKHSA heat-health or cold-health alert in any English region: green 0, yellow 40, amber 75, red 100.
UKHSA and Met Office Weather-Health Alerting System. England only. Outside the alert seasons the level sits at green, so an older reading still stands.
It isn't a forecast, and it isn't a measure of any one household's money. It is our own summary of national conditions, built from official feeds; several parts cover England or Great Britain only, and the energy price cap is left out because it changes four times a year and would drown the daily signal. A Moderate or High reading is a reason to check the part driving it, not a reason to buy anything.
Common questions
What is the Household Strain Index?
One number from 0 to 100 for how much pressure the conditions we track are putting on UK households on a given day: fuel prices, unplanned power cuts, Met Office weather warnings, flood warnings, how much flu and COVID-19 is going round, hosepipe bans, and UKHSA heat and cold health alerts. Each part scores 0 to 100 between two fixed reference points, and the index is their weighted average. It is our own measure, built from official data, and the method is set out in full on this page.
Why is it moderate today?
The biggest part today is fuel prices, adding 21.6 of the 28 points. Petrol 173.8p, diesel 198.7p a litre.
Is it a forecast?
No. It describes conditions on the day, from readings taken twice a day. It says nothing about what will happen next, and it is not a measure of any one household's finances.
Can I use it?
Yes. The daily series is free to use under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0: please credit PreparedBritain's Household Strain Index and link to this page. The CSV is linked below.
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