Is there going to be a war in England? What the official record says, and what it doesn't

Is there going to be a war in England?

It is a question many people are typing into search engines, after months of headlines about defence spending, Russia and a new government emergency campaign. This page answers it from the official record only: what the government's own risk assessment, its security strategy, its household advice and its ministers have said, with dates.

The short answer: none of those sources says a war in England is coming or gives a date for one. Nor do they rule one out. The government plans for an attack on the UK as one risk among many, and says plainly that planning for a risk is not predicting it. The sources speak of the UK, not England alone. Our standing guide, Is the UK preparing for war?, keeps the full dated record of what has and hasn't happened.

What the National Risk Register says

The National Risk Register is the public version of the government's National Security Risk Assessment, its assessment of "the most serious risks facing the UK". The 2026 edition, from the Cabinet Office, was first published on 14 July 2026. It covers 95 risks in total, from floods to cyber attacks.

One of its chapters, Conflict and instability, lists five risks. One is a "Conventional attack on the UK mainland or Overseas Territories". Its scenario is an adversary nation attacking the UK mainland "using a combination of conventional missiles and cyber operations", leading NATO allies to invoke Article 5. The register says a separate nuclear attack scenario "is held internally at a higher classification".

The register publishes no likelihood or impact score for the attack on the UK mainland. It does not say how likely it is. It says each scenario is the "worst plausible manifestation" of a risk, "not a prediction of what is most likely to happen", and that "all risks in the NSRA are relatively low likelihood events." Our guide to the National Risk Register covers the risks most likely to touch a home, such as power cuts.

What the government's strategy and ministers have said

The sentence behind many headlines is in the National Security Strategy, published on 24 June 2025: "For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario." It is a statement about planning for a possibility, in the government's own words.

The latest ministerial word came on 12 November 2026, in a speech by the Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, published by the Ministry of Defence. He said strengthening the armed forces "is crucial to making us war-fighting ready by 2030. Not because war is inevitable but because the more ready we are to fight and win, the less likely war becomes." The speech gave no instruction to the public.

Our search of GOV.UK for statements since 1 October 2026 found none saying an attack on the UK is expected or imminent, and no official instruction to the public about war.

What the household advice says

The government's advice to households is Be Ready, which the Cabinet Office launched on 22 October 2026. Its launch release frames it around "events such as severe weather, which can occasionally affect services like power, water, and the internet", citing "storms last winter and the wildfires this summer". The release does not mention war, conflict or attack. The Be Ready homepage names emergencies "From severe weather to cyber attacks".

The checklist asks for "Bottled water for 3 days", at "3 litres per person per day for drinking", "Non-perishable food for 3 days", a torch, a battery or wind-up FM radio, a charged power bank and some cash. It says "Check your cupboards first" and "You don't need to do it all at once". Our Be Ready explainer goes through it item by item.

How you would be told in an emergency

The register's advice for any emergency is to "pay attention to official sources of information", including messages to your phone from the government's Emergency Alerts service. GOV.UK says Emergency Alerts "provides warning and advice in a life threatening emergency", and: "When you get an alert, stop what you're doing and follow the instructions in the alert."

Depending on the incident, the register says, people may be asked to "go in, stay in and tune in" to local radio or check official sources online. That is why Be Ready's battery or wind-up radio, and writing down your local station's frequency, are worth having for any kind of emergency.

What a household can calmly do

The register's own five steps for households are small: check whether you can join your gas, electricity and water suppliers' Priority Service Register; test smoke alarms monthly; write down important numbers on paper, including 105 for a power cut; teach children how and when to call 999; and check your flood risk and sign up for flood and weather warnings.

Add Be Ready's three days of water, food and basics, built up gradually during your normal shopping. These are the same steps whatever the emergency, and none of them depends on predicting a war.