England's barley and oat harvests are the smallest since 2012, Defra figures show

The smallest barley and oat harvests since 2012

England's barley and oat harvests this year were the smallest since 2012, according to provisional estimates published by Defra on 8 October. The department says "the hot weather and limited rainfall during the growing season hampered the 2026 cereal and oilseed harvest".

Barley came in at 3.7 million tonnes, down 11% on 2025. Spring barley fell 23%, while winter barley rose 1.7%. Oats fell further: 527,000 tonnes, down 29%, as the area fell 21% and the yield 11%.

Not every crop fell. Wheat was up 0.8% at 10.8 million tonnes, and oilseed rape rose 43% to 1.0 million tonnes. Northern regions generally fared slightly better than southern ones.

The figures are for England only and are provisional. UK figures, adding Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, follow on 10 December, when England's numbers can be revised.

The soil is still drier than normal

On our reading of UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology data from its COSMOS-UK monitoring sites, 24 of 28 English sites read drier than normal for the time of year in the week to 13 October. We compare each site with the same week in at least five previous years. The median English site was 8.1 percentage points below normal.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were mostly normal, with 1 of 11 sites reading drier.

In the 10 days to 20 September, the European Drought Observatory's Combined Drought Indicator put 88% of the 65 fixed farmland points we follow in Great Britain in its "warning" category. Those are shares of points, not of farmland area.

What farmers are paying

Defra's average animal feed prices for Great Britain in August put feed barley at £175 a tonne, up 20% on August 2025 (£146.36). Feed wheat was £197.95, up 18% (£167.95), and soya bean meal £356.20, up 21% (£294.80).

Defra's agricultural price indices for the UK show fertiliser up 13% in July against July 2025, energy and fuel up 14%, and all farm inputs up 6%.

What farmers are paid has not all moved one way. Farm-gate prices for cereals were up 7% and fresh vegetables up 10%. Potatoes were down 18%.

Wholesale vegetables cost more than a year ago

At the wholesale markets in England and Wales, Defra's prices for 12 October against 13 October 2025 show white cabbage up 35%, cauliflower up 33%, parsnips up 26%, brown onions up 24% and carrots up 19%. Pears were down 12%.

These are wholesale market prices, not shop prices.

Shop prices have barely moved so far

The latest shop-price figures, from the ONS for August, put food and non-alcoholic drinks 1.3% higher than a year earlier, vegetables up 2.1% and bread and cereals up 1.3%. All items were up 3.1%.

So the gap is plain: many farm and wholesale prices are climbing, and shop prices have not followed so far. The ONS publishes September's figures on 21 October.

What it means for households

Nothing that calls for a change in how you shop. The picture is mixed: potatoes were cheaper at the farm gate and pears cheaper at wholesale, even as cabbage, cauliflower and carrots cost more. There is no reason to buy more than usual.

Worth watching: the ONS shop-price figures on 21 October, Defra's UK-wide harvest figures on 10 December, and the soil readings through the winter.

All of these figures sit together on our live harvest tracker, which updates as each source publishes.