Will energy bills come down? What Ofgem's price cap and the Budget's standing-charge change say

Will energy bills come down this winter?

Nothing official says they will. The last decision on prices was a rise. On 26 August 2026 Ofgem, the energy regulator, announced a 4% increase in the price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026: from £1,663 to £1,723 a year for a typical household paying by Direct Debit for gas and electricity, if that level lasted a year. That is £60 a year, or £5 a month.

Ofgem said the increase reflects higher wholesale gas prices from the conflict in the Middle East. Gas bills went up by 8%, so homes that don't use gas saw a much smaller rise, of less than 1%. Ofgem also said around 35% of households are on fixed tariffs and were not affected by this rise.

The one fall on the record is the VAT cut on electricity from 1 October. Ofgem said it means electricity bills "will remain broadly stable" and that the October cap would otherwise have been around £45 higher; the Treasury says households on fixed tariffs saw their electricity prices fall when it took effect. The Budget itself describes its £100 payment as help "with the rising cost of energy". No official source we read on 14 November says overall bills are coming down this winter.

January's cap isn't set yet

The cap changes every three months. Ofgem's published schedule says the levels for 1 January to 31 March 2027 "will be announced by: 25 November 2026", and that it may publish earlier "if we need to because of external reasons". On 14 November its price cap levels page still listed October to December 2026 as the latest period.

So any January figure you see before then is a forecast, not a decision. We keep the forecasts, each with its date and who made it, on our January price cap page. Every one we could check at source on 2 November pointed to a rise, not a fall. The next firm number will be Ofgem's.

What the Budget changes, and when

The Budget on 28 October 2026 did not set the price cap, which is Ofgem's job. Its energy measures arrive at different times:

VAT on household electricity in Great Britain is already 0% from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. The Budget extends that until July 2027 and says this "is expected to take around £50 off the annual Ofgem price cap in April 2027". The Treasury says the exact saving depends on how much electricity each home uses and on future prices.

A £100 Household Energy Payment goes to homes in council tax bands A to D in England from January 2027, up to 20 million households. The Budget also gives councils in England £100 million for further targeted support. The governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their share of the funding.

The Budget also says no new policy costs will be put on bills until a Cost Control Framework is in place at the 2027 spending review, and that electricity standing charges will be reformed, with details next year.

The gas standing charge: moved, not removed

The standing charge is the daily fee you pay for gas whether or not you use any. The Treasury says it is about £108 a year for a typical household. The government has asked Ofgem to abolish it on household gas bills in Great Britain, around 23 million homes, aiming for the end of 2027 or as soon as possible after. The Budget gives no earlier date.

The cost doesn't disappear. The Budget says Ofgem will make sure suppliers recover these costs through gas unit rates instead. The Treasury estimates 60% of households with a gas account could save around £45 a year on average. The Budget says "a number of households may be less able to make the most of the reform", and the government says it will set out "targeted mitigation for a small number of households" in due course.

What it means for one home's winter

The cap is not a limit on your bill. Ofgem says it is the maximum your supplier can charge for each unit of energy and the standing charge together, and "it does not limit the cost of your total bill". What you pay depends on what you use, and winter is when most homes use the most.

Here is how the October to December cap works out, using Ofgem's average Direct Debit rates for England, Scotland and Wales (our arithmetic). Before you use anything, a 31-day month like December costs £17.00 in electricity standing charges (54.83p a day) and £9.20 for gas (29.68p a day), so £26.20 in total. Each 100 kWh of gas then costs £7.97, and each 100 kWh of electricity £26.32. Your region and how you pay change these figures.

From 1 January the January cap's rates will apply instead. Ofgem says it will publish them by 25 November. The quickest way to see your own winter is your usage in kWh on your bill or in your supplier's app, multiplied by the new rates when they're out.

Help that exists now

The Warm Home Discount is a one-off £150 off your electricity bill for eligible households. GOV.UK says you'll usually get it automatically if you're eligible, though in Scotland you may need to apply to your supplier. If one supplier provides both your gas and electricity, you may be able to get it on your gas bill instead. It isn't available in Northern Ireland.

If you're already behind, talk to your supplier before the debt grows. Our guide sets out the grants that exist.